In June 2019, as Iraq’s cities were in a heat wave of 122 degrees Celsius and 122 degrees Fahrenheit, Turkey stated that it would start filling the Tigris River at the source of the Ilisu Dam. This is the latest in Turkey’s long-term project to build 22 dams and power plants along the Tigris and Euphrates. According to a report from the French International Water Resources Office, the project is seriously affecting the flow of water into Syria and Iraq and Iran. It claims that after completion, Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) in Turkey may include as many as 90 dams and 60 power plants.

As the water level behind the one-mile-wide Ilisu Dam rose, the amount of water flowing into Iraq from the river was halved. In Basra, thousands of kilometers away, Sadr and his neighbors saw their water quality deteriorate. In August, hundreds of people started pouring into Basra’s hospital. They suffered from skin rash, abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, and even cholera, according to Human Rights Watch.

"The Basra story actually has two parts," Iceland said. "First of all, the wastewater is obviously discharged into the local waterways without any treatment. But you must also consider the problem of damming on the Turkish border-the fresh water flowing into the Tigris and Euphrates is getting less and less, and the salt water is further invading the river (from Persia) Bay). Over time, it will destroy crops and make people sick."

This is a complex picture, but this ability to see connections between seemingly disparate things is the water, peace and security (WPS) partnership funded by the Government organizations (including the Pacific Research Institute and the World Resources Institute). They developed a global early warning tool that uses machine learning to predict conflicts before they occur. It combines data on rainfall, crop failures, population density, wealth, agricultural production, levels of corruption, droughts and floods, and many other data sources to generate conflict warnings. They are displayed on a red and orange Mercator projection, extending to the administrative district level. Currently, it warns about 2,000 potential conflict hotspots with an accuracy rate of 86%.

In other words, the connection between water scarcity and conflict is not as simple as it seems. Even if there is a severe drought, a complex combination of factors will determine whether it will actually lead to conflict: social cohesion is one of the most important factors. Take the Kurdistan region of Iraq as an example: In March 2011, the region suffered the same five-year drought, forcing half a million Syrian farmers into the urban center. The closely-knit Kurdish community has not experienced the same fleeing, dissatisfaction, or subsequent infighting. Jessica Hartog, head of natural resource management and climate change at International Alert, a London-based non-governmental organization, explained that this is because the Syrian government, which aims to achieve food self-sufficiency, has long been subsidizing agriculture, including Fuel, fertilizer, and groundwater extraction. When Damascus suddenly cancelled these support for the moderate drought, rural families were forced to move collectively to the urban centers. They brought distrust of the Assad regime and contributed to the painful civil war that has torn the country.

Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the water shortage problem. In many countries, simply reducing losses and leaks can have a huge impact—Iraq loses up to two-thirds of its treated water due to damage to infrastructure. WPS partners also suggested addressing corruption and reducing agricultural over-abstraction as other key policies that can help. Iceland even proposes to increase the price of water to reflect the cost of its supply-in many parts of the world, humans have become accustomed to making water a cheap and abundant resource, not something worth cherishing.